TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 13?
Volume:
$42,063
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on Monday, April 13, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. The comparison uses official closing prices from the Wall Street Journal, with standard rounding to the nearest cent. If prices are equal, no trade occurs, or data is unavailable, the market resolves 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down/Flat) compared to the prior trading day, while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index value ranges, creating scenarios where the same NDX closing price produces opposite outcomes across platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move in tandem. If NDX closes at 24,550 on April 13, Polymarket may resolve YES (Up) while Kalshi resolves NO (outside all Yes ranges). Verify the prior trading day close for Polymarket and cross-reference against Kalshi's 100-point band structure before taking positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on directional comparison—YES if April 13 close is higher than the most recent prior trading day close, NO if lower, 50-50 if equal. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as source: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, April 13, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on absolute end-of-day NDX value falling within one of 30 predefined 100-point bands (e.g., 23600–23699.99, 24000–24099.99, etc.), or outside all bands (below 23600 or above 26399.99). All 30 conditions resolve to YES; no NO outcome is defined: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on April 13, 2026 is between 23700 and 23799.9900, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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