TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 1?
Volume:
$35,860
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on April 1, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 binary contracts at specific price thresholds. Both use official Nasdaq closing prices as the settlement source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market structure incompatibility. Polymarket uses relative directional logic (vs prior close); Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both reference the same underlying index and date, but the resolution frameworks are fundamentally different contract types.Hero Tip:
These markets serve different trading strategies. Polymarket is for directional bets; Kalshi is for price level bets. You cannot directly arbitrage between them. Confirm which market type matches your thesis before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if April 1, 2026 close > most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: 60 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on April 1, 2026 exceeds a specific absolute price threshold. Thresholds range from 19899.99 to 25799.99 in irregular increments. No mention of prior close, relative comparison, or handling of trading halts.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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