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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 1?
polymarket
kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 1?

Volume:
$35,860

23,900 or above

 - Kalshi

23,900 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Closed: Apr 1, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

23,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,624
N/A
N/A
$2,791
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,260
N/A
N/A
$7,514
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,318
N/A
N/A
$1,276
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
$170
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$92
N/A
N/A
$88
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,708
N/A
N/A
$1,461
Settled
No
kalshi

24,300 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,117
N/A
N/A
$1,106
Settled
No
kalshi

24,200 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
$196
Settled
No
kalshi

24,400 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

19,900 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

20,000 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on April 1, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 binary contracts at specific price thresholds. Both use official Nasdaq closing prices as the settlement source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure incompatibility. Polymarket uses relative directional logic (vs prior close); Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both reference the same underlying index and date, but the resolution frameworks are fundamentally different contract types.Hero tip: These markets serve different trading strategies. Polymarket is for directional bets; Kalshi is for price level bets. You cannot directly arbitrage between them. Confirm which market type matches your thesis before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if April 1, 2026 close > most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.
  • Kalshi: 60 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on April 1, 2026 exceeds a specific absolute price threshold. Thresholds range from 19899.99 to 25799.99 in irregular increments. No mention of prior close, relative comparison, or handling of trading halts.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.