May Unemployment Rate

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Core resolution logic:

• Resolution value is the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for May 2026, reported to one decimal place
• Kalshi markets resolve YES if the rate matches any of the 23 specified values (3.3% through 5.5%)
• Polymarket markets resolve YES if the rate matches the specific threshold (exact values: 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%; or ranges: ≤3.9%, ≥4.7%)
• Limitless markets resolve YES if the rate matches the specific threshold (exact values: 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%; or ranges: ≤3.9%, ≥4.7%)
• Only the first official BLS release counts; any subsequent data revisions are ignored
• If May 2026 data is not released by the scheduled July 2026 data release date, resolution uses the most recent available unemployment data

Edge cases & Clarifications:

• Data Revision After Release: BLS occasionally revises unemployment data in subsequent months. All three platforms explicitly state that only the first release counts, and revisions do not affect market resolution.
• Missing May Data: If the BLS does not publish May 2026 data by the time July 2026 data is scheduled for release, all platforms fall back to the last available month's unemployment rate.
• Rounding and Precision: All platforms confirm resolution uses one decimal place precision as reported by BLS. Values like 4.05% would round to 4.1% per standard BLS reporting.
• Coverage Gaps Across Platforms: Kalshi covers 23 specific values (3.3% to 5.5%); Polymarket and Limitless cover exact values 4.0-4.6% plus two range markets (≤3.9%, ≥4.7%). Any outcome outside these ranges on Polymarket/Limitless would result in NO resolution on those platforms, but Kalshi has broader coverage.