May Inflation US - Monthly

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Core resolution logic:

• Resolution is determined by the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the BLS
• The metric is reported to one decimal place (e.g., 0.4%, 0.1%, -0.2%)
• Kalshi resolves to Yes if the CPI month-over-month matches any of the 13 listed values (-0.2%, -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.9%, 1.0%)
• Polymarket resolves each individual binary question (e.g., 'Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6%?') to Yes or No based on whether the actual BLS figure matches the stated threshold
• If the BLS does not release on the scheduled date, markets remain open until the next scheduled CPI report release; if still unavailable, resolution uses the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & Clarifications:

• BLS Release Delay: If the June 10, 2026 release is postponed, both platforms remain open until the next scheduled BLS CPI report. If data is not released by that subsequent date, resolution defaults to the most recent previous month with available data.
• Rounding and Precision: BLS reports CPI to one decimal place. Any value outside the 13 discrete outcomes listed on Kalshi (e.g., 1.1%, 0.95%) would resolve Kalshi to No; Polymarket questions for those values would also resolve to No.
• Negative Inflation (Deflation): Both platforms accommodate negative month-over-month changes. Kalshi explicitly includes -0.2% and -0.1%; Polymarket's 'Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less?' captures negative outcomes.