TOTAL VOLUME:
$62.1b
24H VOL:
$235,216,568
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,359,678,827
584,153
Markets across
14,438
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,188
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Intro
This market tracks whether Spencer Pratt will receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Aggregating data from Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability for the Over outcome (≥25%) stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Spencer Pratt, as reported following the first round of voting. Watch for the election results on November 4, 2026, when the certified vote totals will determine the final market outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is presented as 15 overlapping Yes conditions with no explicit No threshold, while Polymarket defines a single binary threshold at 25%. The actual settlement rule on Kalshi is ambiguous and may not align with Polymarket's Over/Under 25% framing.Hero Tip:
Polymarket is the clearer market: Over if Spencer Pratt receives ≥25%, Under if <25%. Kalshi's multiple Yes conditions (ranging from 10% to 100%) suggest a lower effective threshold, but this is not explicitly stated. Do not assume the markets are equivalent. Seek Kalshi clarification on whether the true threshold is 10%, 25%, or something else before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary threshold at exactly 25%. Over resolves if certified popular vote ≥25%; Under resolves if <25%. Single, unambiguous rule with official City and County of Los Angeles results as source. Fallback to 50-50 if results unknown by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Kalshi:
15 separate Yes-resolution conditions, all with ranges from X% to 100% (where X ranges from 10 to 50). No explicit No condition stated. Conditions include 10%-100%, 15%-100%, 20%-100%, 23%-100%, 24%-100%, 25%-100%, 26%-100%, 27%-100%, 28%-100%, 29%-100%, 30%-100%, 35%-100%, 40%-100%, 45%-100%, and 50%-100%. Logical structure implies Yes resolves if result ≥10%, but this is not explicit.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling because they incorporate trader incentives, real-money stakes, and forward-looking information. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate expectations about final election results and account for campaign momentum, endorsements, and media coverage. For the Spencer Pratt mayoral race, market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of his viability, which may differ substantially from snapshot polling depending on recent developments and information asymmetries among market participants.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket operate under different regulatory frameworks, contract specifications, and user demographics, leading to price variations on the same event. Kalshi offers a percent probability while Polymarket shows percent, a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from distinct liquidity pools, fee structures, market-maker strategies, and how each platform's community interprets Spencer Pratt's electoral prospects. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms may persist due to friction costs and geographic or regulatory constraints on traders.
The market resolves on Nov 4, 2026, following the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Resolution hinges on the official vote count and whether Spencer Pratt's share of the popular vote in the first round meets or exceeds the 25 percent threshold specified in the contract. Each platform applies its own settlement procedures to determine the final outcome based on certified election results, ensuring that traders' positions are settled according to the actual electoral performance.
Key catalysts include Spencer Pratt's campaign announcements, endorsements from prominent LA figures, media coverage and viral moments, polling releases showing his support trajectory, and major city issues that reshape the electoral landscape. Debates, fundraising milestones, and competitor entries or exits can shift trader expectations about his viability. Personal controversies or policy positions may also trigger sharp repricing. As the election approaches, early voting data and turnout models will increasingly influence market odds, with the final weeks typically seeing heightened volatility as uncertainty resolves.
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