TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 25%
- Kalshi
At least 25% - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:17 AM EST
Kalshi
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%?
Intro
This market tracks whether Spencer Pratt will receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability stands at 99.0% for this outcome, based on certified election results as the resolution source. Watch the November 3, 2026 election date, when first-round vote totals will be certified and determine the final settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is presented as 15 overlapping Yes conditions with no explicit No threshold, while Polymarket defines a single binary threshold at 25%. The actual settlement rule on Kalshi is ambiguous and may not align with Polymarket's Over/Under 25% framing.Hero tip: Polymarket is the clearer market: Over if Spencer Pratt receives ≥25%, Under if <25%. Kalshi's multiple Yes conditions (ranging from 10% to 100%) suggest a lower effective threshold, but this is not explicitly stated. Do not assume the markets are equivalent. Seek Kalshi clarification on whether the true threshold is 10%, 25%, or something else before trading.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Binary threshold at exactly 25%. Over resolves if certified popular vote ≥25%; Under resolves if <25%. Single, unambiguous rule with official City and County of Los Angeles results as source. Fallback to 50-50 if results unknown by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kalshi: 15 separate Yes-resolution conditions, all with ranges from X% to 100% (where X ranges from 10 to 50). No explicit No condition stated. Conditions include 10%-100%, 15%-100%, 20%-100%, 23%-100%, 24%-100%, 25%-100%, 26%-100%, 27%-100%, 28%-100%, 29%-100%, 30%-100%, 35%-100%, 40%-100%, 45%-100%, and 50%-100%. Logical structure implies Yes resolves if result ≥10%, but this is not explicit.
Polymarket
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election was held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. This market will resolve to “Over” if Spencer Pratt receives greater than or equal to 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Under”. The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Spencer Pratt divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the results of the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Kalshi
The vote percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Spencer Pratt ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because they incorporate trader incentives, real-money stakes, and forward-looking information. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate expectations about final election results and account for campaign momentum, endorsements, and media coverage. For the Spencer Pratt mayoral race, market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of his viability, which may differ substantially from snapshot polling depending on recent developments and information asymmetries among market participants.
Key catalysts include Spencer Pratt's campaign announcements, endorsements from prominent LA figures, media coverage and viral moments, polling releases showing his support trajectory, and major city issues that reshape the electoral landscape. Debates, fundraising milestones, and competitor entries or exits can shift trader expectations about his viability. Personal controversies or policy positions may also trigger sharp repricing. As the election approaches, early voting data and turnout models will increasingly influence market odds, with the final weeks typically seeing heightened volatility as uncertainty resolves.