TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Keir Starmer departure announced?
Total volume:
$11,998,095
Volume 24h:
$42,410
95%
Liquidity:
$323,553
3%
Open interest:
$1,089,687
0.62%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, will cease to hold office through resignation, removal, or announcement of departure before various dates in 2026. Markets span multiple resolution windows from February through December 2026, with both platforms using announcement or actual departure as the trigger for Yes resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Predict differ on the scope of announcement timing and the explicit treatment of announced-but-not-yet-effective departures. Kalshi specifies announcement or departure before a cutoff date; Predict explicitly states that announcement before market end date triggers Yes regardless of effective departure date.Hero Tip:
If you believe Starmer will announce resignation in early 2026 but the effective date is later, Predict markets (especially Feb 28 and Mar 31) are more likely to resolve Yes. Kalshi markets depend on whether the announcement date falls before the specified cutoff. For longer-dated markets (Jun 30, Dec 31), both platforms converge on similar logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Six markets with cutoff dates: Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, Jun 1, Jul 1, Sep 1, 2026. Resolves Yes if Starmer officially announces intention to leave OR actually leaves before each date. No explicit carve-out for announcement timing relative to market end.
- Predict: Four markets with windows starting Feb 10, 2026 and ending on Feb 28, Mar 31, Jun 30, or Dec 31, 2026. Resolves Yes if Starmer ceases to be PM during the window OR if announcement of resignation/removal occurs before market end date, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. Key quote: 'An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to Yes, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.