TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner
Total volume:
$47,814
Volume 24h:
$2
100%
Liquidity:
$21,749
2%
Open interest:
$19,850
0.01%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket includes generic placeholder candidates (Person A through Person O) and an 'other' category alongside named candidates, while Kalshi lists only six specific named candidates with no catch-all option. This creates scope and resolution path differences between platforms.Hero Tip:
If you bet on a named candidate like Ashley Hinson or Jim Carlin, both platforms will resolve consistently for those individuals. However, if an unnamed candidate wins, Polymarket resolves to 'another person' while Kalshi has no corresponding market—creating asymmetric payoff profiles. Avoid betting on Polymarket's generic 'Person' slots unless you have conviction the winner is truly unknown.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Offers 21 markets covering six named candidates (Jim Carlin, Joshua Smith, John Berman, Ashley Hinson), fifteen generic placeholder persons (Person A through Person O), and an 'another person' catch-all. Resolution source is 'first announcement of results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.' Exactly one market resolves YES if that individual wins the nomination.
- Kalshi: Offers six separate markets for six named candidates only: Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Ashley Hinson, Joshua Smith, Joni Ernst, and Jim Carlin. No catch-all or placeholder markets. Resolution occurs if the named individual 'wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Iowa Senate seat.' No explicit fallback if someone else wins.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.