TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Iowa Governor Republican Primary Winner
Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses a primary election winner framework with an 'Other' catch-all for non-occurrence, while Kalshi uses a nomination framework with a fixed list of named candidates. The scope and resolution trigger differ between platforms.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, you are betting on the primary election winner directly; on Kalshi, you are betting on whether a specific candidate wins the Republican Party nomination. If the primary does not occur, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' but Kalshi markets may not have a clear resolution path. Ensure you understand which framework matches your prediction before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa scheduled for June 2, 2026. Includes 33 individual candidate markets plus an 'Other' catch-all. If no primary takes place, all markets resolve to 'Other'. Resolution source is the first official announcement from the Iowa Republican Party or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if a named candidate wins the Republican Party nomination to contest the 2026 Iowa Governorship. Covers only 7 specific candidates: Zach Lahn, Adam Steen, Randy Feenstra, Mike Bousselot, Eddie Andrews, Brad Sherman, and Amy Sinclair. No explicit 'Other' or catch-all mechanism is stated.
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