TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Total volume:
$100,419
Volume 24h:
$2,293
392%
Liquidity:
$47,799
15%
Open interest:
$33,521
0.79%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the winner of the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary—the candidate who secures the Democratic Party's official nomination to contest the U.S. Senate seat. Markets resolve based on the Iowa Democratic Party's official announcement of primary results, with an 'Other' category for scenarios where no primary occurs or an unlisted candidate wins.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket includes a generic 'another person' catch-all outcome and an 'Other' resolution clause for event non-occurrence, while Kalshi lists only four specific named candidates with no explicit fallback or non-occurrence clause.Hero Tip:
If you believe a candidate outside the four named on Kalshi (Josh Turek, Zach Wahls, Nathan Sage, J.D. Scholten) will win, you can only bet on Polymarket. On Kalshi, betting on any of those four candidates caps your upside if an unlisted candidate wins the nomination instead.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES for any named individual who wins the Democratic nomination, plus includes 'another person' outcome and 'Other' resolution if no primary takes place. Resolution source is Iowa Democratic Party announcement or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES only if one of four specific candidates (Josh Turek, Zach Wahls, Nathan Sage, or J.D. Scholten) wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Iowa Senate seat. No explicit fallback outcome or non-occurrence clause provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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