TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

kalshi

polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?

Volume:

$65,851

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?

- Polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Closed: Mar 30, 5:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$5,197

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4490

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4,654

N/A

N/A

$4,226

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4510

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4,099

N/A

N/A

$3,480

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4500

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,788

N/A

N/A

$3,463

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4460

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,331

N/A

N/A

$2,195

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4470

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,262

N/A

N/A

$1,250

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4480

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,185

N/A

N/A

$844

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4400

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$696

N/A

N/A

$669

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4440

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$679

N/A

N/A

$525

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4300

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$515

N/A

N/A

$513

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4450

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$467

N/A

N/A

$445

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4320

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$428

N/A

N/A

$428

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4430

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$422

N/A

N/A

$394

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4420

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$391

N/A

N/A

$385

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4350

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$339

N/A

N/A

$336

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4240

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$281

N/A

N/A

$271

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4410

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$252

N/A

N/A

$177

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4340

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$249

N/A

N/A

$157

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4380

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$235

N/A

N/A

$229

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4390

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$201

N/A

N/A

$184

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4270

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$191

N/A

N/A

$191

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4230

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$178

N/A

N/A

$168

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4310

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$168

N/A

N/A

$158

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4280

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$148

N/A

N/A

$148

Settled

Yes

kalshi

above $4330

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$135

N/A

N/A

$135

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether the gold price (XAUUSD) closes higher or lower on March 30, 2026 compared to the previous trading day's close. Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts, each triggering a 'Yes' resolution if the 5 PM EDT closing price exceeds a specific threshold ($4230–$4620), while Polymarket uses a simpler directional comparison: 'Up' if March 30 close > prior trading day close, 'Down' if lower, or 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if the gold price exceeds any of 50 specific price thresholds (ranging from $4230 to $4720), making it a multi-outcome market where YES occurs for virtually any price above $4230. Polymarket resolves YES/DOWN based on price comparison to the prior trading day's close, making it a relative-change market. These are incompatible settlement frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price data.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move together. A price of $4300 on March 30 would resolve YES on Kalshi (exceeds $4230 threshold) but could resolve DOWN on Polymarket if the prior day closed above $4300. Verify the prior trading day's close before taking positions, and understand that Kalshi's 50 thresholds create a 'yes-bias' market while Polymarket is a true binary directional bet.

Critical divergence points:

Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on March 30, 2026 exceeds ANY of 50 specific price thresholds, with the lowest threshold at $4230 and highest at $4720. The resolution logic is absolute price-level based: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above $4230, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a market that resolves YES for any price above $4230 and NO only if price is at or below $4230.
Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP/DOWN based on relative price comparison to the most recent prior trading day's close, not absolute thresholds. The resolution logic is directional: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on March 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.' Resolves 50-50 if prices are equal or if no trade occurs. Uses Pyth as the data source with CME COMEX Gold Futures as fallback.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.