TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 26?
Volume:
$16,408
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group compares gold (XAUUSD) price movement on March 26, 2026 across two fundamentally different resolution frameworks. Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds (43 separate 'Yes' conditions at various price levels), while Polymarket uses a relative comparison (Up/Down versus the prior trading day's close). The markets measure different things despite referencing the same underlying asset and date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds (multiple binary conditions at fixed levels); Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price direction. Both reference the same 5 PM EDT close on March 26, 2026, but measure fundamentally different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Understand your market type before trading. Kalshi bets require predicting an absolute price level; Polymarket bets require predicting directional movement relative to the prior day. A trader bullish on gold might win Kalshi but lose Polymarket if the prior day's close was higher. Cross-platform hedging is possible but requires careful price scenario modeling.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold framework. 43 separate Yes conditions, each triggered independently if the 5 PM EDT 1-minute candle close on March 26, 2026 exceeds a specified price level. Lowest threshold $4360; highest $4780. No explicit No resolution condition stated; implies No if price <= lowest threshold ($4360). Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on March 26, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Relative direction framework. Resolves Up if March 26 close > prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close values for 5 PM ET 1-minute candles, with CME COMEX GC futures as fallback. Explicitly handles trading day determination, data outages, and contract modifications. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on March 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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