TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 7?
Volume:
$78,731
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the closing price of gold (XAUUSD) on April 7, 2026 at 5 PM EDT will exceed a specific threshold. All 40 Kalshi rules resolve to 'Yes' if the 1-minute candlestick close price surpasses any of the listed strike prices, creating a tiered ladder of price levels. Polymarket data is unavailable for comparison, limiting cross-platform validation.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on whether the gold price exceeds any of 40 specific price thresholds at 5 PM EDT on April 7, 2026, while Polymarket resolves based on a day-over-day price comparison (April 7 close versus the prior trading day close). These produce incompatible outcomes: Kalshi can only resolve YES or NO based on absolute price levels, whereas Polymarket resolves YES/NO/50-50 based on relative movement.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. A YES on Kalshi (price above any threshold) does not guarantee a YES on Polymarket (price higher than prior day). For example, if gold closes at 4550 on April 7 but closed at 4600 on April 6, Kalshi resolves YES (above 4537, 4517, 4507, etc.) but Polymarket resolves DOWN/NO. Conversely, if gold closes at 4400 on April 7 but closed at 4300 on April 6, Polymarket resolves UP/YES but Kalshi resolves NO (below all thresholds). Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 7, 2026 exceeds ANY of 40 predefined absolute price thresholds (ranging from 4497 to 4887 USD/t.oz). This is an absolute price-level test with no reference to prior trading day performance. Key quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 07, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP/YES if the April 7, 2026 close price is higher than the most recent prior trading day close price; resolves DOWN/NO if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or if no trade occurs. This is a relative day-over-day comparison using Pyth data, with fallback to CME COMEX Gold Futures if Pyth data is unavailable. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on April 7, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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