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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 2?
kalshi
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 2?

Volume:
$48,931

above $4670

 - Kalshi

above $4670 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 2, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $4670

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,404
N/A
N/A
$4,361
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4660

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,698
N/A
N/A
$3,472
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4640

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,724
N/A
N/A
$2,260
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4650

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,311
N/A
N/A
$1,597
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4620

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
$775
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4630

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,206
N/A
N/A
$659
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4610

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,085
N/A
N/A
$670
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4600

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$911
N/A
N/A
$485
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4590

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$892
N/A
N/A
$555
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4580

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$890
N/A
N/A
$394
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4550

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$751
N/A
N/A
$668
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4570

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4560

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$199
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4680

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,213
N/A
N/A
$5,328
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4690

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,434
N/A
N/A
$2,521
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,403
N/A
N/A
$1,297
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4760

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,713
N/A
N/A
$1,073
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4750

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,240
N/A
N/A
$1,009
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4810

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$954
N/A
N/A
$573
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4710

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$953
N/A
N/A
$565
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4770

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$898
N/A
N/A
$604
Settled
No
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 2?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4820

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$498
N/A
N/A
$349
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4800

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
$446
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4740

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$439
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group asks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will close higher on April 2, 2026 compared to the previous trading day's close. Kalshi offers 40 binary contracts at specific price thresholds ($4530–$4920), while Polymarket offers a single relative comparison market (Up vs. Down vs. 50-50 tie). The core question is identical: directional movement of gold on a specific date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds at a specific timestamp (5 PM EDT April 2, 2026), while Polymarket resolves based on a day-over-day price comparison relative to the prior trading day's close. These produce different outcomes for identical market conditions.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. If gold closes at $4,550 on April 2 but was at $4,500 on April 1, Kalshi resolves YES (price above $4,530) while Polymarket resolves UP (higher than prior day). Conversely, if gold closes at $4,520 on April 2 but was at $4,600 on April 1, Kalshi resolves NO (price below all thresholds) while Polymarket resolves DOWN (lower than prior day). Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 2, 2026 exceeds any of 40 absolute price thresholds ranging from $4,530 to $4,920. Resolution is independent of prior trading day prices. Key quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 02, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above $4530, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if April 2, 2026 close is higher than the most recent prior trading day close; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. Resolution depends entirely on day-over-day comparison, not absolute price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on April 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.