TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 2?
Volume:
$48,931
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will close higher on April 2, 2026 compared to the previous trading day's close. Kalshi offers 40 binary contracts at specific price thresholds ($4530–$4920), while Polymarket offers a single relative comparison market (Up vs. Down vs. 50-50 tie). The core question is identical: directional movement of gold on a specific date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds at a specific timestamp (5 PM EDT April 2, 2026), while Polymarket resolves based on a day-over-day price comparison relative to the prior trading day's close. These produce different outcomes for identical market conditions.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. If gold closes at $4,550 on April 2 but was at $4,500 on April 1, Kalshi resolves YES (price above $4,530) while Polymarket resolves UP (higher than prior day). Conversely, if gold closes at $4,520 on April 2 but was at $4,600 on April 1, Kalshi resolves NO (price below all thresholds) while Polymarket resolves DOWN (lower than prior day). Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 2, 2026 exceeds any of 40 absolute price thresholds ranging from $4,530 to $4,920. Resolution is independent of prior trading day prices. Key quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 02, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above $4530, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if April 2, 2026 close is higher than the most recent prior trading day close; resolves DOWN if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. Resolution depends entirely on day-over-day comparison, not absolute price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on April 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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