TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Fed decision in April?
Volume:
$241,501,150
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Federal Reserve will change interest rates at its April 28-29, 2026 meeting. The markets measure the magnitude and direction of any change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, with specific focus on rate cuts (25+ bps or 50+ bps), rate increases (25+ bps), or no change. Resolution depends on the FOMC's official statement and the Federal Reserve's published decision.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket resolves based solely on the magnitude of the Fed's interest rate decision (in basis points), while Kalshi adds an additional constraint requiring zero dissents among FOMC members. This creates different resolution criteria for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, you are betting purely on the rate decision outcome. On Kalshi, you are betting on the rate decision AND unanimous agreement (no dissents). If you expect dissents, Kalshi markets are harder to win even if the rate move matches your prediction. Polymarket offers cleaner exposure to the rate decision alone.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES/NO based exclusively on the basis point change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting. Five mutually exclusive brackets: 50+ bps decrease, 25 bps decrease, no change, 25+ bps increase, and 50+ bps increase. Changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 bps. Source: FOMC statement and Federal Reserve official website. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.'
- Kalshi: Resolves YES only if BOTH conditions are met: (1) the Federal Funds Rate Decision matches one of two specific outcomes (25bp cut OR no change), AND (2) Dissents equals zero. The market does not resolve YES for any other rate decision magnitude (e.g., 50bp cut or 25bp increase), and it does not resolve YES if there are any dissenting votes, even if the rate decision matches. Quote: 'If ALL of the following occur for Apr 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.