TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Epstein client list released by...?
Total volume:
$4,285,334
Volume 24h:
$1,193
76%
Liquidity:
$41,519
39%
Open interest:
$181,256
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether previously unreleased documents containing Jeffrey Epstein's client list—a roster of individuals implicated in his illegal activities—will be made public. Markets span multiple deadline windows (end of 2025, mid-2026) and include a Trump Administration-specific release condition on Kalshi.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket enforces a strict criminal-implication and credible-reporting standard for client list qualification, while Kalshi uses a looser administrative-release standard tied only to Trump Administration action and topical relevance to Epstein's connections or associates.Hero Tip:
Polymarket is the higher-bar market. A document released by Trump Administration that discusses Epstein associates (Kalshi YES) may still fail Polymarket resolution if it lacks explicit criminal context or credible reporting linking names to illegal activity. Watch for documents that are released but disputed in credible reporting as to their criminal significance.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Requires released files to contain names in context equivalent to a criminal client list—explicitly identifying individuals as directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, or being implicated in Epstein's illegal activities (sex trafficking, related crimes). Flight logs, visitor logs, contact books, and social calendars do not qualify unless accompanied by credible reporting confirming criminal nexus. Resolution sources: released files themselves and consensus of credible reporting.
- Kalshi: Requires Trump Administration release of previously unreleased documents related to or discussing Epstein's connections or associates, created prior to the start of the Administration, before Jun 1, 2026. No explicit requirement for criminal implication, client list equivalence, or credible reporting consensus. Resolution source: Trump Administration action.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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