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406,065

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2,692

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5

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39%

VS.

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61%

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Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 6?
polymarket
kalshi

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 6?

Volume:
$147,594

$74.0 or above

 - Kalshi

$74.0 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$74.0 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$66,783
N/A
N/A
$32,115
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73.00 to 73.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,564
N/A
N/A
$22,832
Settled
No
kalshi

$61.00 to 61.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,349
N/A
N/A
$8,897
Settled
No
kalshi

$72.00 to 72.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,320
N/A
N/A
$5,150
Settled
No
kalshi

$71.00 to 71.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,011
N/A
N/A
$3,740
Settled
No
kalshi

$69.00 to 69.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,186
N/A
N/A
$3,072
Settled
No
kalshi

$70.00 to 70.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,105
N/A
N/A
$2,287
Settled
No
kalshi

$62.00 to 62.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,100
N/A
N/A
$2,974
Settled
No
kalshi

$68.00 to 68.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,340
N/A
N/A
$2,138
Settled
No
kalshi

$63.00 to 63.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,845
N/A
N/A
$1,845
Settled
No
kalshi

$64.00 to 64.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,752
N/A
N/A
$1,300
Settled
No
kalshi

$67.00 to 67.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,595
N/A
N/A
$1,166
Settled
No
kalshi

$66.00 to 66.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,369
N/A
N/A
$1,056
Settled
No
kalshi

$65.00 to 65.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$823
N/A
N/A
$579
Settled
No
kalshi

$60.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$452
N/A
N/A
$452
Settled
No
polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 6?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 16

Description

These markets track whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on March 6, 2026, compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a directional up/down comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price bands. Both reference CME front-month settlement prices as the official data source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible resolution architectures: Polymarket is a directional comparison (up vs down relative to prior day), while Kalshi is an absolute price-band selection (15 discrete ranges). Both reference CME front-month settlement but resolve to different outcome spaces.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move in lockstep. A Polymarket UP result (price higher than March 5) could resolve to any of Kalshi's YES bands depending on the prior day's close. For example, if March 5 settle was $72.50 and March 6 settle is $72.75, Polymarket resolves UP but Kalshi resolves YES only if $72.75 falls in one of its bands (it does: $72.00–$72.99). However, if March 5 was $74.00 and March 6 is $74.50, Polymarket resolves UP but Kalshi resolves YES (above $73.99). Use these as separate bets, not hedges.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves UP if March 6 front-month CME settlement > March 5 front-month CME settlement; DOWN if lower. Uses same contract month on both days. Resolves 50-50 if CME does not publish by 11:59 PM ET next trading day. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.'
  • Kalshi: Absolute price-band market. Resolves YES if March 6 front-month WTI settle price falls into any of 15 specified ranges: below $61.00, $61–$61.99, $63–$73.99, or above $73.99. No directional comparison; outcome depends only on absolute price level. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 06, 2026 is between $61.00 and 61.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.