TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 6?
Volume:
$147,594
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets track whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on March 6, 2026, compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a directional up/down comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price bands. Both reference CME front-month settlement prices as the official data source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible resolution architectures: Polymarket is a directional comparison (up vs down relative to prior day), while Kalshi is an absolute price-band selection (15 discrete ranges). Both reference CME front-month settlement but resolve to different outcome spaces.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move in lockstep. A Polymarket UP result (price higher than March 5) could resolve to any of Kalshi's YES bands depending on the prior day's close. For example, if March 5 settle was $72.50 and March 6 settle is $72.75, Polymarket resolves UP but Kalshi resolves YES only if $72.75 falls in one of its bands (it does: $72.00–$72.99). However, if March 5 was $74.00 and March 6 is $74.50, Polymarket resolves UP but Kalshi resolves YES (above $73.99). Use these as separate bets, not hedges.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves UP if March 6 front-month CME settlement > March 5 front-month CME settlement; DOWN if lower. Uses same contract month on both days. Resolves 50-50 if CME does not publish by 11:59 PM ET next trading day. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.'
- Kalshi: Absolute price-band market. Resolves YES if March 6 front-month WTI settle price falls into any of 15 specified ranges: below $61.00, $61–$61.99, $63–$73.99, or above $73.99. No directional comparison; outcome depends only on absolute price level. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 06, 2026 is between $61.00 and 61.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.