TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 23?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if, on Monday, March 23, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. This market will resolve to "Down" if, on Monday, March 23, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is lower than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. If CME does not publish the settlement price for the listed trading day by 11:59 PM ET of the next trading day, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the Active Month changes between the previous trading day and Monday, March 23, 2026, the market will continue using the same contract month used on the previous trading day for the purposes of determining whether the settlement price moved up or down. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logics. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (15 different YES conditions ranging from $88.99 to $102.99), while Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price movement relative to the previous trading day's settlement. These two approaches will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price data.Hero Tip:
If you trade this market, understand that your YES/NO outcome depends entirely on which platform you use. On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels on March 23. On Polymarket, you are betting on whether March 23's price is higher or lower than March 22's price. A price of $95.00 on March 23 would resolve YES on Kalshi (meets multiple thresholds), but could resolve NO on Polymarket if March 22 closed at $96.00. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage is possible.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 23, 2026 exceeds any of 15 absolute price thresholds ranging from $88.99 to $102.99. The market contains 15 separate YES conditions with no explicit NO condition defined. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 23, 2026 is above $88.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves UP if March 23's official CME settlement price for the active-month CL futures contract is higher than the previous trading day's (March 22's) official settlement price for the same contract month. Resolves DOWN if lower. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if, on Monday, March 23, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.