TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 20?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if, on Friday, March 20, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. This market will resolve to "Down" if, on Friday, March 20, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is lower than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. If CME does not publish the settlement price for the listed trading day by 11:59 PM ET of the next trading day, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the Active Month changes between the previous trading day and Friday, March 20, 2026, the market will continue using the same contract month used on the previous trading day for the purposes of determining whether the settlement price moved up or down. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES for any price outcome between $93.00 and above $105.99 (covering nearly all realistic scenarios), making NO resolution nearly impossible. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down) relative to the previous trading day's settlement, a completely different metric. These markets will produce opposite outcomes for identical price data.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve the same way. On Kalshi, YES is heavily favored because the resolution rules cover almost every plausible price level; on Polymarket, the outcome depends entirely on whether March 20's settlement is higher or lower than March 19's settlement. If you trade both platforms, you are taking opposite directional bets, not hedging the same event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 20, 2026 falls within any of 13 specific price bands ($93.00–$105.99+) or below $93.00. This covers virtually all realistic price outcomes, making NO resolution extremely unlikely. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 20, 2026 is below $93.00, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'above $105.99, then the market resolves to Yes'—with 13 intermediate bands all resolving YES.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if the March 20, 2026 CME settlement price for the active-month CL contract is higher than the March 19, 2026 settlement price; resolves DOWN if lower. Resolution is purely directional (price movement), not absolute price level. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price' and 'Down if...lower than the previous trading day's official settlement price'.
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