TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 19?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if, on Thursday, March 19, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. This market will resolve to "Down" if, on Thursday, March 19, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is lower than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. If CME does not publish the settlement price for the listed trading day by 11:59 PM ET of the next trading day, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the Active Month changes between the previous trading day and Thursday, March 19, 2026, the market will continue using the same contract month used on the previous trading day for the purposes of determining whether the settlement price moved up or down. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds (whether WTI settles above specific dollar amounts), while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (whether the settlement price is higher or lower than the previous trading day). These two approaches will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price data.Hero Tip:
If you trade this market, understand which platform you are on: Kalshi bets on absolute price levels (e.g., will oil close above $95?), while Polymarket bets on directional movement (e.g., will oil close higher than yesterday?). A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (e.g., oil at $96) could resolve NO on Polymarket if the previous day's close was $97. Do not assume the same bet works the same way across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves YES if the front-month WTI settle price on March 19, 2026 exceeds any of 15 absolute price thresholds ranging from $88.99 to $102.99. The market uses fixed dollar amounts as resolution criteria, with no reference to prior-day prices or relative movement. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 19, 2026 is above $98.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket resolves UP if the March 19, 2026 front-month CME settlement price is higher than the previous trading day's settlement price for the same contract month, and DOWN if lower. The market is purely comparative and depends on the prior-day close, not absolute price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if, on Thursday, March 19, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract.'
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