TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 17?
Volume:
$399,488
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) futures will close higher or lower on March 17, 2026. Kalshi offers 15 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold, while Polymarket offers a single relative-movement market comparing March 17's settlement to the prior trading day's settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds for resolution, while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price movement. The two measurement bases are fundamentally different and can produce opposite outcomes.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets require predicting absolute WTI price levels on March 17, 2026. Polymarket requires only predicting whether the price moves up or down from March 16. These are distinct trading signals. A flat or slightly higher close on Polymarket could coincide with a No resolution on Kalshi's higher thresholds, or vice versa.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 15 separate binary markets using absolute price thresholds ranging from $91.99 to $105.99. Each market resolves Yes if the front-month WTI settle price on March 17, 2026 exceeds its specific threshold. Resolution is based on the official settlement price published by CME for that date.
- Polymarket: Single binary market resolving Up if March 17, 2026 CME settlement price for the active month is higher than March 16, 2026 settlement price; resolves Down if lower. Uses relative price movement, not absolute levels. Active month may roll between the two dates; if so, the same contract from March 16 is used for comparison.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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