TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 12?
Volume:
$127,502
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on March 12, 2026. Polymarket measures directional movement versus the prior trading day's settlement, while Kalshi measures absolute price levels against multiple strike thresholds. Both use CME front-month settlement prices as the official reference.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative directional logic (prior day comparison), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. The same March 12 settlement price will produce different outcomes on each platform.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket Up correlates with Kalshi Yes. Polymarket Up simply means March 12 close > March 11 close; Kalshi Yes means March 12 close > one of 17 fixed strike prices. You must know the March 11 settlement to predict Polymarket, but only the March 12 settlement matters for Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional resolution based on day-over-day comparison. Resolves Up if March 12 CME settlement > March 11 CME settlement for the same active month contract. Resolves Down if lower. If active month changes, uses the same contract month as prior day. Resolution source: CME Group settlement page, first published price only (no corrections). If no settlement published by 11:59 PM ET next day, resolves 50-50.
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold resolution across 17 separate binary conditions. Each resolves Yes if March 12 front-month WTI settle price exceeds a fixed strike ($75.99, $76.99, $77.99, $78.99, $79.99, $80.99, $81.99, $82.99, $83.99, $84.99, $85.99, $86.99, $87.99, $88.99, $89.99, $90.99, $91.99, $92.99, $93.99, $94.99, $95.99). No reference to prior-day price.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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