TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 11?
Volume:
$346,640
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) prices move up or down on March 11, 2026. Kalshi offers 19 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold, while Polymarket offers a single market comparing the settlement price on March 11 to the previous trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price movement as the resolution criterion, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are mechanically incompatible: oil could move up on March 11 (Polymarket Up) yet fail to exceed a high Kalshi threshold (Kalshi No), or move down yet still clear a low Kalshi threshold (Kalshi Yes).Hero Tip:
Understand your thesis before choosing a platform. Polymarket bets on momentum (directional change from March 10 close). Kalshi bets on absolute price levels. A single day's move can satisfy one criterion but not the other. Cross-platform hedging is not straightforward.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative comparison market. Resolves Up if March 11 CME settlement price for Active Month CL futures is higher than March 10 settlement price; resolves Down if lower. Uses CME Group official settlement page as authoritative source. Handles Active Month contract roll-over rules and publishes settlement by 11:59 PM ET next trading day or resolves 50-50.
- Kalshi: Absolute price threshold markets (19 separate contracts). Each resolves Yes if front-month WTI settle price on March 11 exceeds a specific threshold ($83.99, $84.99, $85.99... up to $101.99). No explicit source citation; assumes CME settlement but does not specify handling of contract rolls or publication delays.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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