TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10?
Volume:
$361,164
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on March 10, 2026. Polymarket uses a directional comparison (up vs. down from prior day), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both reference CME front-month settlement prices for the same underlying commodity.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket resolves on directional price movement (relative to prior day settlement), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds. The same underlying CME settlement price will trigger different outcomes depending on platform logic.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket Up and Kalshi Yes are equivalent. Polymarket Up requires only that March 10 settle higher than March 9 settle—regardless of absolute level. Kalshi Yes requires March 10 settle above one of 19 fixed thresholds. If March 9 settled at $95.50, Polymarket Up triggers at $95.51+, but Kalshi Yes already triggered at $95.99+. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if prior-day settlement is not known in advance.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional resolution: Up if March 10 CME settlement > March 9 CME settlement for the same Active Month contract. Down if lower. Resolves 50-50 if CME does not publish by 11:59 PM ET on March 11. Active month is locked from prior trading day to prevent contract-rollover ambiguity.
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold resolution: Yes if front-month settle price on March 10 exceeds any of 19 price levels ($79.99, $80.99, $81.99... $97.99). No explicit fallback for missing data, no mention of contract-month rollover handling, and no No resolution condition specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.