TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10?
polymarket
kalshi

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10?

Volume:
$361,164

$82 or above

 - Kalshi

$82 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Closed: Mar 10, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$82 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,775
N/A
N/A
$6,033
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$83 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,504
N/A
N/A
$4,176
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$80 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,772
N/A
N/A
$3,129
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$81 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,085
N/A
N/A
$1,310
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$85 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,042
N/A
N/A
$28,133
Settled
No
kalshi

$84 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,162
N/A
N/A
$22,848
Settled
No
kalshi

$86 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,394
N/A
N/A
$11,355
Settled
No
kalshi

$88 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,772
N/A
N/A
$9,115
Settled
No
kalshi

$90 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,545
N/A
N/A
$11,417
Settled
No
kalshi

$87 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,556
N/A
N/A
$5,752
Settled
No
kalshi

$89 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,059
N/A
N/A
$4,813
Settled
No
kalshi

$92 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,746
N/A
N/A
$7,295
Settled
No
kalshi

$95 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,785
N/A
N/A
$6,421
Settled
No
kalshi

$98 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,707
N/A
N/A
$7,035
Settled
No
kalshi

$91 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,894
N/A
N/A
$5,302
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,995
N/A
N/A
$3,767
Settled
No
kalshi

$94 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,454
N/A
N/A
$2,934
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,053
N/A
N/A
$3,536
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,864
N/A
N/A
$3,043
Settled
No
polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on March 10, 2026. Polymarket uses a directional comparison (up vs. down from prior day), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both reference CME front-month settlement prices for the same underlying commodity.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket resolves on directional price movement (relative to prior day settlement), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds. The same underlying CME settlement price will trigger different outcomes depending on platform logic.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket Up and Kalshi Yes are equivalent. Polymarket Up requires only that March 10 settle higher than March 9 settle—regardless of absolute level. Kalshi Yes requires March 10 settle above one of 19 fixed thresholds. If March 9 settled at $95.50, Polymarket Up triggers at $95.51+, but Kalshi Yes already triggered at $95.99+. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if prior-day settlement is not known in advance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional resolution: Up if March 10 CME settlement > March 9 CME settlement for the same Active Month contract. Down if lower. Resolves 50-50 if CME does not publish by 11:59 PM ET on March 11. Active month is locked from prior trading day to prevent contract-rollover ambiguity.
  • Kalshi: Absolute threshold resolution: Yes if front-month settle price on March 10 exceeds any of 19 price levels ($79.99, $80.99, $81.99... $97.99). No explicit fallback for missing data, no mention of contract-month rollover handling, and no No resolution condition specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.