TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on February 27?
Volume:
$43,328
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) futures will close higher or lower on February 27, 2026. Polymarket resolves based on a day-over-day price comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi resolves based on whether the settlement price falls within any of 15 predefined price bands, all of which resolve to Yes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket resolves on day-over-day directional change (Up vs Down), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price bands that collectively cover nearly all possible outcomes, resulting in incompatible resolution frameworks and asymmetric Yes bias on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Polymarket is a relative directional play; Kalshi is an absolute price-level play with extreme Yes bias. They are not equivalent hedges. Clarify your market thesis before trading: are you betting on direction (Polymarket) or price level (Kalshi)? Note that Kalshi's Yes resolution covers prices below $60, between $60–$72.99 in $1 bands, and above $72.99—leaving no realistic No outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional comparison: resolves Up if Feb 27 CME settlement > Feb 26 CME settlement; Down if lower. Uses official CME settlement price for the active month contract, with active month rules applied consistently across both days. Key Quote: 'higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract.'
- Kalshi: Absolute price-band framework: resolves Yes if settlement price falls within any of 15 predefined bands ($60–$62.99, $63–$65.99, $66–$68.99, $69–$71.99, $72–$72.99) or outside them (<$60 or >$72.99). All 15 conditions resolve to Yes; no explicit No condition is defined. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on February 27, 2026 is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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