TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on February 20?
Volume:
$189,846
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on February 20, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional Up/Down comparison, while Kalshi frames it as a price-level Yes/No outcome across multiple price bands. Both use CME front-month settlement prices as the official data source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket resolves on directional price change (Up/Down vs prior day), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price level (Yes/No across 15 price bands). These are distinct event types with different outcome spaces.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets. Polymarket requires knowledge of Feb 19 settlement to predict Feb 20 direction. Kalshi requires only a point estimate of Feb 20 settlement price. A trader bullish on oil might buy Up on Polymarket but also buy Yes on Kalshi if they expect price in the $65–$70 range—but these bets are independent, not correlated.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if Feb 20 CME Active Month settlement > Feb 19 settlement; Down if lower. Uses official CME settlement price only, published on CME settlement page. If Active Month contract changes between Feb 19 and Feb 20, uses the same contract from Feb 19 for comparison. Resolves 50-50 if CME does not publish by 11:59 PM ET next day. Key Quote: 'the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.'
- Kalshi: Absolute price-level market. Resolves Yes if front-month WTI settle price on Feb 20 falls within any of 15 specified bands: below $58, $58–$58.99, $59–$59.99, $60–$60.99, $61–$61.99, $62–$62.99, $63–$63.99, $64–$64.99, $65–$65.99, $66–$66.99, $67–$67.99, $68–$68.99, $69–$69.99, $70–$70.99, or above $70.99. Resolves No if price falls in any gap (e.g., $58.00 exactly is Yes, but no gap exists in the band structure). Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on February 20, 2026 is between $58.00 and $58.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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