TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Description
These markets collectively assess which candidate will receive the most valid votes in Colombia's first-round presidential election scheduled for May 31, 2026. Polymarket offers individual binary markets for 15+ named candidates plus catch-all categories, while Kalshi provides a single binary market covering five specific candidates (Daniel Quintero, Paloma Valencia, Iván Cepeda Castro, Abelardo de la Espriella, Sergio Fajardo). Both platforms resolve based on official results from Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) official first-round election resultsCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES for the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting on May 31, 2026.
- Market resolves NO for all other candidates.
- Exactly ONE market in the group will resolve YES (the first-round winner).
- Resolution is based solely on official results reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil).
- If results are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to Other.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement of first-round results by Colombia's National Civil Registry, no later than December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.