TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Volume:
$21,000
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the winner of the 2026 Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary. Markets resolve YES if a specific candidate wins the Democratic Party nomination to contest the 2026 U.S. Senate seat from Arkansas. The group includes named candidates (Hallie Shoffner, Dan Whitfield, Ethan Dunbar) and placeholder candidates, with an 'Other' option if no primary occurs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms apply identical resolution logic: a single YES outcome for the candidate who wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Arkansas Senate seat, with consistent fallback to Other/No if no primary occurs.
Primary resolution logic:
Arkansas Democratic Party official primary results announcement; credible reporting consensus acceptable as secondary source per Polymarket terms.Core resolution logic:
- Exactly one candidate wins the 2026 Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary nomination
- Markets for that winning candidate resolve YES; all other candidate markets resolve NO
- Resolution triggered by first official Arkansas Democratic Party announcement or overwhelming credible reporting consensus
- If no primary election takes place, all markets resolve to Other or No
- Placeholder candidates (O, D, J, A, K, L, N, E, I, M, F, H, C, G, B) and named candidates (Shoffner, Whitfield, Dunbar) follow identical resolution rules
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No Primary Held: If the 2026 Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary does not take place, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi markets resolve to No. Both outcomes are logically consistent.
- Contested or Delayed Results: Resolution waits for official Arkansas Democratic Party announcement. If announcement is delayed or disputed, credible reporting consensus from major news outlets may suffice per Polymarket resolution criteria.
- Candidate Withdrawal or Disqualification: Only the candidate who officially wins the nomination triggers YES resolution. Withdrawals or disqualifications do not alter the outcome for the actual winner.
- Plurality vs Majority Primary: Resolution is based on the official winner declared by Arkansas Democratic Party, regardless of whether the primary uses plurality, majority, or ranked-choice voting.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon the first official announcement of primary results by the Arkansas Democratic Party, expected in 2026 during the primary election cycle. Credible reporting consensus may accelerate resolution if official announcement is delayed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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