TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Intro
This market group tracks whether specific Brazilian football players will be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad. Across Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability for Kaiki's inclusion stands at 10.0%, while Neymar's inclusion is priced at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by FIFA's official website announcement of Brazil's squad, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source. Watch for Brazil's official squad announcement by June 1, 2026, which will settle all player-specific markets in this group.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Predict and Predict derive odds from decentralized trader consensus rather than traditional sportsbook models. Market prices reflect real-time belief updates as new information emerges about player form, injuries, and squad selection signals. Prediction markets often move faster than sportsbooks and can diverge significantly when traders identify mispricing. The distributed nature of these platforms means odds reflect aggregated wisdom across thousands of participants rather than a single bookmaker's risk assessment.
On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Predict shows on its leading outcome while Predict reflects , a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from varying user bases, trading volumes per player, platform-specific incentives, and timing of information arrival. Lower liquidity on one platform can also amplify price divergence, especially for less-traded squad candidates.
The market resolves on Jul 20, 2026, aligned with the official announcement of Brazil's final squad list for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Resolution is determined by the official roster published by the Brazilian Football Confederation, which typically occurs shortly before the tournament begins. Each player outcome resolves to yes or no based on whether that individual appears on the confirmed squad sheet submitted to FIFA.
Key catalysts include player injuries or recoveries, domestic league performance and form trends, managerial statements about squad preferences, and official pre-tournament friendlies. International break matches provide direct evaluation opportunities for Brazil's coaching staff. Transfer market activity, particularly moves to top European clubs, can shift selection odds. Media reports on squad discussions, player availability, and tactical direction also influence trader positioning. Late-stage injury announcements or surprise call-ups typically trigger sharp market repricing.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.