TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Real Madrid
Volume:
$188,915
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a professional Euroleague basketball game between Zalgiris Kaunas and Real Madrid scheduled for March 20, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. Markets are offered on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with different resolution structures that create a critical logical inconsistency.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (Real Madrid win and Zalgiris Kaunas win) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), rendering the market unable to differentiate between outcomes and making it fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading Kalshi until the platform corrects the resolution criteria. The market cannot function as written because there is no losing condition. Polymarket offers clear, mutually exclusive categorical outcomes and should be preferred for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Categorical resolution with three distinct outcomes: resolves to 'Zalgiris Kaunas' if they win, 'Real Madrid' if they win, or 50-50 split if game is canceled with no makeup. Postponements keep market open until completion.
- Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market where both 'Real Madrid wins' AND 'Zalgiris Kaunas wins' resolve to Yes, creating a logical impossibility with no defined No condition.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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