TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET

Volume:
$152

$1.38 to 1.3999

 - Kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 22, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.42 to 1.4399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.26 to 1.2799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.4 to 1.4199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.62 to 1.6399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.58 to 1.5999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.77991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.22 to 1.2399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.3 to 1.3199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.2 to 1.2199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.04 to 1.0599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.32 to 1.3399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.44 to 1.4599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.1 to 1.1199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.12 to 1.1399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.28 to 1.2999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.36 to 1.3799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.0199999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 22, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD Real-Time Index with 60-second averaging across 40 discrete price bands.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) 60-second average within specific price bands. These are different data sources, different methodologies, and different settlement values that will produce divergent outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move together. A YES on Polymarket (XRP closes >= open on Binance 1H candle) does not guarantee YES on Kalshi (price in one of 40 specific CF Benchmarks bands). The markets measure different things: directional movement vs. absolute price level. Arbitrage risk is high.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves YES if XRP/USDT close price is greater than or equal to open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at the specified time. Uses Binance as sole source. This is a directional comparison (up or flat vs. down), not an absolute price level. Key quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT falls within any of 40 predefined price bands (e.g., 1.30000-1.3199, 1.44000-1.4599, etc.) or above 1.7799 or below 1.02000. This is an absolute price-level settlement, not directional. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [band] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.