TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET
Volume:
$152
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 22, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD Real-Time Index with 60-second averaging across 40 discrete price bands.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) 60-second average within specific price bands. These are different data sources, different methodologies, and different settlement values that will produce divergent outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. A YES on Polymarket (XRP closes >= open on Binance 1H candle) does not guarantee YES on Kalshi (price in one of 40 specific CF Benchmarks bands). The markets measure different things: directional movement vs. absolute price level. Arbitrage risk is high.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves YES if XRP/USDT close price is greater than or equal to open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at the specified time. Uses Binance as sole source. This is a directional comparison (up or flat vs. down), not an absolute price level. Key quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT falls within any of 40 predefined price bands (e.g., 1.30000-1.3199, 1.44000-1.4599, etc.) or above 1.7799 or below 1.02000. This is an absolute price-level settlement, not directional. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [band] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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