TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET
Volume:
$28,132
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on March 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price (open vs close comparison), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index with 60-second averaging and 0.02 USD price band resolution rules.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct price measurement methodologies and resolution architectures. Polymarket resolves binary (Up vs Down) on Binance XRP/USDT spot; Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks index with 40 discrete price bands, each triggering Yes. The indices may diverge, and Kalshi's band structure means most outcomes resolve Yes rather than No.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a true binary bet; Kalshi is a price-band lottery where ~95% of realistic XRP prices fall into a Yes band. Monitor Binance spot price for Polymarket direction and CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI for Kalshi band placement. Do not cross-hedge without accounting for index basis risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution. Resolves Up if Binance XRP/USDT 1H candle close >= open; otherwise Down. Single data source (Binance), simple comparison logic, true 50/50 outcome space.
- Kalshi: 40 discrete Yes-resolution price bands (0.02 USD width) spanning 0.92000–1.6799+, based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second pre-5PM average. Resolves Yes if price falls in any band; resolves No only if price < 0.92000 or > 1.6799. Heavily skewed toward Yes outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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