TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 5PM ET
Volume:
$5,867
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 10, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot prices, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with multiple price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement concepts: Polymarket resolves on directional price movement (close vs open comparison on a 1H candle), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price levels against 40 distinct thresholds using a different data source (CF Benchmarks RTI vs Binance spot).Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are interchangeable. Polymarket tells you if XRP moved up or down during the hour; Kalshi tells you if XRP's 60-second average price at exactly 5 PM ET exceeded specific levels. The data sources differ (Binance spot vs CF Benchmarks RTI), and timing precision differs (1H candle close vs 60-second average). Choose your platform based on which settlement method and data source you trust.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution based on 1-hour candle open vs close on Binance XRP/USDT. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Source: Binance XRP/USDT pair displayed at top of 1H chart. Key Quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate threshold-based markets, each resolving Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price level (ranging from 0.8999 to 1.6799). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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