TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 5PM ET
Volume:
$25,289
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess XRP price movement on February 25, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a simple 1-hour candle comparison (open vs. close) on Binance XRP/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 60-second averaging across 38 discrete price bands.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price sources (Binance XRP/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and incompatible resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 38 discrete price bands). Kalshi's resolution logic also lacks an explicit No condition, creating ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as equivalent or hedgeable positions. Polymarket is a true binary (Up or Down). Kalshi appears to resolve Yes across nearly all realistic price outcomes (0.92 to 1.68+), suggesting a potential structural flaw in the market design or missing No resolution criteria. Confirm Kalshi's complete resolution rules and No conditions with the platform before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price; otherwise Down. Source: Binance XRP/USDT pair, 1H candle finalized data.
- Kalshi: 38 discrete Yes-resolution price bands based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EST. Covers 0.92000 to 1.6799+ USD in 0.02 USD increments. No explicit No resolution condition provided in source data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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