TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will move upward or remain flat/decline on April 17, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi offers 50 granular price-level markets (each resolving Yes if XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds specific thresholds from $0.7999 to $1.7799), while Polymarket offers a single binary comparing the 1-hour candle open vs. close on Binance XRP/USDT. The core question is identical—directional movement—but the measurement methodologies and precision differ significantly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible data sources and resolution methodologies. Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 distinct price thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison. These markets cannot resolve to the same outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not arbitrage these markets. Kalshi's outcome depends on a specific benchmark index price level at a precise moment; Polymarket's outcome depends on whether Binance's hourly candle closes above its open. A price move that triggers YES on one platform may trigger NO on the other. Treat them as independent events.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on April 17, 2026 exceeds any of 50 specified thresholds (ranging from 0.7999 to 1.7799). All 50 conditions are identical in structure: 'If the simple average...is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit NO condition is stated; implicit NO occurs if price is at or below the lowest threshold (0.7999). This creates a logical contradiction: all 50 conditions are mutually inclusive (any price above 0.7999 satisfies multiple thresholds simultaneously), yet the market structure implies a single binary outcome.
- Polymarket: Market resolves UP if the close price of the XRP/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 17 is greater than or equal to the open price of that same candle. Otherwise resolves DOWN. Source is Binance XRP/USDT pair only. This is a simple binary comparison: close >= open = UP; close < open = DOWN.
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