TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 5PM ET
Volume:
$6,119
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price moves up or down at a specific moment on April 14, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) 60-second average. The markets measure directional price movement but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure XRP price using different sources (Binance XRP/USDT candle vs CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index) and different time windows (1-hour candle open/close vs 60-second average before 5 PM), creating potential for non-correlated outcomes. Additionally, Kalshi's 40-band structure is fundamentally different from Polymarket's binary up/down logic.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a true directional bet; Kalshi is heavily skewed toward YES (price-band coverage is extensive). Cross-platform arbitrage is not viable due to index and methodology differences. Confirm your preferred price source before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional bet on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 14, 2026. DOWN otherwise. Single source: Binance XRP/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Price-band lottery using CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves YES if price falls within any of 40 discrete bands (0.92-0.9399, 0.94-0.9599, 0.96-0.9799, 0.98-0.9999, 1.00-1.0199, 1.02-1.0399, 1.04-1.0599, 1.06-1.0799, 1.08-1.0999, 1.10-1.1199, 1.12-1.1399, 1.14-1.1599, 1.16-1.1799, 1.18-1.1999, 1.20-1.2199, 1.22-1.2399, 1.24-1.2599, 1.26-1.2799, 1.28-1.2999, 1.30-1.3199, 1.32-1.3399, 1.34-1.3599, 1.36-1.3799, 1.38-1.3999, 1.40-1.4199, 1.42-1.4399, 1.44-1.4599, 1.46-1.4799, 1.48-1.4999, 1.50-1.5199, 1.52-1.5399, 1.54-1.5599, 1.56-1.5799, 1.58-1.5999, 1.60-1.6199, 1.62-1.6399, 1.64-1.6599, 1.66-1.6799, above 1.6799) or below 0.92000. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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