TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET
Volume:
$5,560
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on April 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with granular price band outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct price indices (Binance XRP/USDT spot vs CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI) measured at the same event time, with different aggregation windows and outcome structures (binary vs 40-band). Basis risk exists between the two data sources.Hero Tip:
Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different price feeds. Binance spot may diverge from CF Benchmarks RTI due to exchange-specific liquidity, aggregation lag, and methodology. Do not assume they will resolve the same way. Track both indices independently and hedge accordingly if you hold positions on both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional outcome (Up or Down) based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 12, 2026. Uses single exchange spot price with no price bands or granularity.
- Kalshi: 40 discrete price band outcomes (each 0.02 wide, ranging 0.92000 to 1.6799+) based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves Yes if price lands in any listed band; implicit No if price falls outside all bands (e.g., 0.9600-0.9799 is Yes, but 0.9800-0.9799 gap is No).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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