TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET

Volume:
$5,560

$1.32 to 1.3399

 - Kalshi

$1.32 to 1.3399 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 12, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.32 to 1.3399

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
$742
Settled
Yes
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.36 to 1.3799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$964
N/A
N/A
$923
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$812
N/A
N/A
$757
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$683
N/A
N/A
$462
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.4 to 1.4199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$289
N/A
N/A
$283
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.54 to 1.5599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.56 to 1.5799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.3 to 1.3199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
$49
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.12 to 1.1399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.16 to 1.1799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.92 to 0.9399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.24 to 1.2599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.9199999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.94 to 0.9599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.96 to 0.9799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1 to 1.0199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.04 to 1.0599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.1 to 1.1199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on April 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with granular price band outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price indices (Binance XRP/USDT spot vs CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI) measured at the same event time, with different aggregation windows and outcome structures (binary vs 40-band). Basis risk exists between the two data sources.Hero tip: Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different price feeds. Binance spot may diverge from CF Benchmarks RTI due to exchange-specific liquidity, aggregation lag, and methodology. Do not assume they will resolve the same way. Track both indices independently and hedge accordingly if you hold positions on both platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional outcome (Up or Down) based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 12, 2026. Uses single exchange spot price with no price bands or granularity.
  • Kalshi: 40 discrete price band outcomes (each 0.02 wide, ranging 0.92000 to 1.6799+) based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves Yes if price lands in any listed band; implicit No if price falls outside all bands (e.g., 0.9600-0.9799 is Yes, but 0.9800-0.9799 gap is No).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.