TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Olympics 2026: Ski Big Air - Men's
Volume:
$336,626
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Men's Ski Big Air gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket offers binary yes/no markets on individual skiers winning gold, while Kalshi offers binary markets on whether specific skiers win any medal (gold, silver, or bronze). The core divergence is scope: Polymarket resolves on gold-medal-only outcomes, while Kalshi resolves on any-medal outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure different outcomes: Polymarket resolves on gold medal only, while Kalshi resolves on any medal (gold, silver, or bronze). Additionally, Polymarket includes explicit edge-case handling (cancellation deadline, disqualification policy, fallback to Other), while Kalshi does not.Hero Tip:
These markets are not equivalent. A skier winning silver or bronze will resolve YES on Kalshi but will not resolve any Polymarket gold-medal market. Polymarket includes a hard deadline (March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET) and explicit disqualification rules; Kalshi does not. Traders should treat these as separate event classes and not assume arbitrage or hedging opportunities between platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if and only if the named skier is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics Men's Ski Big Air event, as confirmed by official IOC sources at the time of the medal ceremony. Subsequent disqualifications are ignored. If the event is postponed after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or no gold medal is declared by that deadline, the market resolves to Other. If a participant is eliminated per IOC rules, their market resolves to No. If multiple participants are awarded gold, the market resolves in favor of the alphabetically first name.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if the named skier wins any medal (gold, silver, or bronze) in the 2026 Winter Olympics Freestyle Skiing Men's Freeski Big Air event. No explicit deadline, cancellation clause, or disqualification policy is stated. Resolution source and fallback logic are not defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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