TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Man (Driver)
Volume:
$63,202
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Men's 2-Man Bobsled Driver competition at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina. Kalshi offers a broad country-level medal market (any medal for 18 nations), while Polymarket offers granular individual driver gold-medal markets. The core question is whether these represent the same underlying event or fundamentally different settlement scopes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different settlement targets: Kalshi resolves on any medal (gold/silver/bronze) for 18 nations; Polymarket resolves exclusively on gold for individual drivers. A country can satisfy Kalshi without satisfying any Polymarket driver market, and vice versa.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes are correlated. A YES on Kalshi (e.g., Germany wins silver) will NOT resolve any Polymarket driver market to YES unless that same driver wins gold. Monitor Polymarket placeholder resolution separately; 15 of 36 markets reference unresolved placeholders. For Kalshi, verify medal color (not just medal) at olympics.com before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Country-level, any-medal scope. 18 pre-specified nations (Canada, USA, Switzerland, Trinidad & Tobago, Korea Republic, Netherlands, Great Britain, Liechtenstein, Austria, Italy, Jamaica, Israel, France, Brazil, Germany, Romania, Latvia, China PR). Resolves YES if any of these nations wins gold, silver, or bronze in Men's 2-Man Bobsled. No disqualification carve-out; no timing constraint beyond standard Olympics schedule.
- Polymarket: Individual driver, gold-medal-only scope. 15 named drivers + 15 placeholders + 1 catch-all ("someone else"). Each market resolves YES only if that specific driver wins gold. Post-ceremony disqualifications ignored. Ties broken alphabetically by driver name. Cancellation/delay past 31-Mar-2026 11:59 PM ET or no gold declared = "Other". Resolution source: olympics.com.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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