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406,065

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Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Man (Driver)
kalshi
polymarket

Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Man (Driver)

Volume:
$63,202

Johannes Lochner (GER)

 - Polymarket

Johannes Lochner (GER) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 18, 2026

Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Man (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Johannes Lochner (GER)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,054
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Germany

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,531
$319
0%
0%
$319
N/A
kalshi

United States

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1,492
$11,181
0%
0%
$8,243
N/A
polymarket

Frank Del Duca (USA)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,311
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Latvia

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$97
$4,721
0%
0%
$4,721
N/A
kalshi

Switzerland

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$8,711
$4,128
0%
0%
$4,117
N/A
kalshi

Romania

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$9,144
$2,180
0%
0%
$1,581
N/A
kalshi

Korea Republic

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$92
$1,902
0%
0%
$1,902
N/A
polymarket

Patrick Baumgartner (ITA)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,847
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Kaizhi Sun (CHN)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,758
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Jakob Mandlbauer (AUT)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,738
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Matej Behounek (CZE)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,711
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Dave Wesselink (NED)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,638
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Mihai Cristian Tentea (ROU)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,630
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Kristopher Horn (USA)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,618
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Jekabs Kalenda (LAT)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,616
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Romain Heinrich (FRA)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,601
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Markus Treichl (AUT)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,538
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Cedric Follador (SUI)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,538
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Jinsu Kim (KOR)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,395
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Brad Hall (GBR)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,298
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Michael Vogt (SUI)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,256
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Adam Ammour (GER)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,172
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Francesco Friedrich (GER)

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$774
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Netherlands

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$210
$467
0%
0%
$467
N/A
Total markets: 25 of 52

Description

This event group covers the Men's 2-Man Bobsled Driver competition at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina. Kalshi offers a broad country-level medal market (any medal for 18 nations), while Polymarket offers granular individual driver gold-medal markets. The core question is whether these represent the same underlying event or fundamentally different settlement scopes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different settlement targets: Kalshi resolves on any medal (gold/silver/bronze) for 18 nations; Polymarket resolves exclusively on gold for individual drivers. A country can satisfy Kalshi without satisfying any Polymarket driver market, and vice versa.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes are correlated. A YES on Kalshi (e.g., Germany wins silver) will NOT resolve any Polymarket driver market to YES unless that same driver wins gold. Monitor Polymarket placeholder resolution separately; 15 of 36 markets reference unresolved placeholders. For Kalshi, verify medal color (not just medal) at olympics.com before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Country-level, any-medal scope. 18 pre-specified nations (Canada, USA, Switzerland, Trinidad & Tobago, Korea Republic, Netherlands, Great Britain, Liechtenstein, Austria, Italy, Jamaica, Israel, France, Brazil, Germany, Romania, Latvia, China PR). Resolves YES if any of these nations wins gold, silver, or bronze in Men's 2-Man Bobsled. No disqualification carve-out; no timing constraint beyond standard Olympics schedule.
  • Polymarket: Individual driver, gold-medal-only scope. 15 named drivers + 15 placeholders + 1 catch-all ("someone else"). Each market resolves YES only if that specific driver wins gold. Post-ceremony disqualifications ignored. Ties broken alphabetically by driver name. Cancellation/delay past 31-Mar-2026 11:59 PM ET or no gold declared = "Other". Resolution source: olympics.com.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.