TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Games 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m
Volume:
$123,040
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on who will win the gold medal in Women's 1500m Speed Skating at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina. Kalshi offers country-level binary markets, while Polymarket offers individual athlete markets plus placeholder slots and a catch-all 'someone else' option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi operates at country level (17 binary markets per country), while Polymarket operates at individual athlete level (16 named athletes, 5 undefined placeholders, 1 catch-all). A single gold medal outcome satisfies exactly one Kalshi market and exactly one Polymarket market, but the mapping is not one-to-one due to placeholder opacity.Hero Tip:
Understand that these are not redundant markets. Kalshi YES on 'Netherlands' resolves independently of which Dutch athlete wins (Rijpma-De Jong, Kok, or Groenewoud). Polymarket resolves on the specific athlete. If you want to hedge, you must identify the likely athlete per country and trade accordingly. Placeholders (1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15) are unresolvable without disclosure of which athletes they represent.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Country-level binary markets. 17 separate YES/NO markets, one per nation (Germany, China PR, Kazakhstan, Japan, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland, Netherlands, Korea Republic, Austria, United States, Poland, Norway, Great Britain, Czechia, Canada, Belgium). Each resolves YES if that country's athlete wins gold, NO otherwise. No athlete-level granularity.
- Polymarket: Individual athlete markets plus structural gaps. 16 named athletes (Rijpma-De Jong, Kok, Groenewoud, Lollobrigida, Yang, Takagi, Morozova, Bowe, Zdrahaleva, Wiklund, Czerwonka, Blondin, Li, Sato, Han, Myers, Horikawa, Van Elst, Golubeva, McGregor) plus 5 undefined 'Placeholder' slots (1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15) and 1 catch-all 'someone else' market. Placeholders lack athlete identity, creating resolution ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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