TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Games 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 500m
Volume:
$109,140
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Men's 500m Speed Skating gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer binary markets on whether specific athletes will win the gold medal, with Kalshi listing 28 named competitors and Polymarket using a mix of named athletes and placeholder identifiers across 42 individual markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's use of 15 unresolved placeholder identifiers without disclosed athlete mappings creates a data integrity failure that makes those markets fundamentally unresolvable until clarification is provided. Additionally, Polymarket's alphabetical tie-breaking rule and catch-all market introduce structural differences absent from Kalshi's simpler binary design.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading Polymarket placeholder markets until the platform publishes the athlete-to-placeholder mapping. Stick with Kalshi's named-athlete markets or Polymarket's explicitly named athletes (Shogo Miyata, Steven Dubois, etc.) for clarity. If you must trade Polymarket, treat the catch-all "someone else" market as a hedge against placeholder resolution failures.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 28 binary markets, each named after a specific athlete. Resolution: Yes if that athlete wins the 2026 Winter Olympics Men's 500m speed skating gold medal; No if any other athlete wins or the named athlete is eliminated per IOC rules. No tie-breaking rules or catch-all markets. Source: Official IOC information.
- Polymarket: 42 markets: 27 explicitly named athletes plus 15 unresolved placeholders (Placeholder 1-15), plus one catch-all "someone else" market. Resolution: Yes if the named/placeholder athlete wins gold; No if eliminated. If multiple athletes tie for gold, resolves to the athlete whose name comes first alphabetically. Placeholders lack disclosed mappings. Source: Official IOC information (olympics.com). Deadline: if event postponed after 31 March 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or no gold declared by deadline, resolves to Other.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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