TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Games 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver)
Volume:
$42,680
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the gold medal winner in the Women's 2-Person Bobsled (Driver) event at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer markets on individual drivers and country teams, with resolution tied to the official IOC medal ceremony outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses individual driver resolution with alphabetical tiebreaker logic and placeholder contingencies, while Kalshi uses country-level resolution. Both reference the same underlying IOC medal ceremony, but the granularity and framing differ significantly.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket driver markets and Kalshi country markets are equivalent. A single country gold medal could map to multiple drivers on Polymarket. Use the alphabetical tiebreaker rule (first name alphabetically wins if co-medalists) to disambiguate. Verify driver nationality before cross-platform arbitrage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Individual driver resolution with 23 named drivers (Melanie Hasler, Lisa Buckwitz, Kim Kalicki, Laura Nolte, Elana Meyers Taylor, Kaysha Love, Kaillie Armbruster Humphries, Melissa Lotholz, Cynthia Appiah, Margot Boch, Debora Annen, Adele Nicoll, Katrin Beierl, Bree Walker, Simone De Silvestro, Qing Ying, Mingming Huai, Viktoria Cernanska, Kelly Van Petegem, Georgeta Popescu) plus 15 placeholders. Resolves YES if that specific driver wins gold. Tiebreaker: alphabetical by listed name. Key quote: 'If multiple participants are awarded the gold medal, this market will resolve in favor of the participant whose listed name comes first alphabetically.'
- Kalshi: Country-level resolution: 14 countries (USA, Italy, France, Slovakia, Chinese Taipei, Austria, Poland, Korea Republic, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, China PR, Germany, Great Britain). Resolves YES if that country wins the gold medal. No driver-level granularity or tiebreaker logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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