TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup
Total volume:
$3,035
Volume 24h:
$1,102
0%
Liquidity:
$0
0%
Open interest:
$2,062
53%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether Lamine Yamal will play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for Spain. Resolution hinges on whether he takes the field as a player in at least one official match during the tournament. Both platforms align on the core condition but differ slightly in scope and timing guardrails.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses squad inclusion as the resolution trigger, while Predict requires actual on-field appearance. Predict also enforces a hard deadline (August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) for confirmation; Kalshi does not specify a confirmation deadline.Hero Tip:
Traders on Kalshi are betting on squad selection; traders on Predict are betting on actual playing time. These are materially different outcomes. If Yamal is selected but never plays due to injury or tactical choice, Kalshi Yes / Predict No is possible. Monitor team news and injury reports closely. On Predict, ensure confirmation of on-field appearance occurs before the August 2, 2026 cutoff.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Squad inclusion trigger. Resolves Yes if Lamine Yamal is on the final squad for Spain in World Cup 2026, regardless of whether he plays. No explicit confirmation deadline stated.
- Predict: On-field appearance trigger. Resolves Yes only if Yamal takes the field as a player in at least one official match (group stage or later). Hard confirmation deadline: August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no confirmation by then, resolves No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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