TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
Total volume:
$98,218
Volume 24h:
$2,925
24%
Liquidity:
$7,008
7%
Open interest:
$44,429
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum will reach $1,000 or $3,000 first, with a secondary Bitcoin market on Kalshi asking if BTC reaches $75,000 before $100,000. The primary Ethereum markets (Polymarket and Predict) are identical in structure and resolution logic, while Kalshi's Bitcoin market operates independently with different price thresholds and a different asset class.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Asset class fragmentation within a single event group. The group title specifies Ethereum, but Kalshi's market resolves on Bitcoin with different price thresholds and no explicit data source specification, creating scope ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Treat the Ethereum markets (Polymarket and Predict) as a unified pair with consistent Binance ETH/USDT resolution. Monitor Kalshi's Bitcoin market separately and clarify its data source before settlement, as it lacks explicit feed specification unlike the Ethereum markets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Ethereum (ETH/USDT) binary: resolves YES if $1,000 hit first, NO if $3,000 hit first, 50-50 if neither by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Resolution source: Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Ethereum's price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price.'
- Predict: Ethereum (ETH/USDT) binary: identical logic to Polymarket. Resolves YES if $1,000 hit first, NO if $3,000 hit first, 50-50 if neither by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Resolution source: Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles.
- Kalshi: Bitcoin (BTC) binary: resolves YES if $75,000 reached before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. NO if $100,000 reached first. Resolution source: NOT EXPLICITLY SPECIFIED. Key Quote: 'If BTC reaches $75,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.