TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Wild vs. Stars
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 28 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wild win, the market will resolve to "Wild". If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi employs a non-standard four-market structure with overlapping goal-differential thresholds, while Polymarket uses conventional moneyline, spread, and over/under markets. The Kalshi markets all resolve to Yes under different win-margin conditions, creating structural ambiguity about whether they are independent contracts or mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Request clarification from Kalshi on whether the four markets are independent Yes/No contracts or represent a single event with multiple outcome paths. For spread betting, Polymarket's Stars -1.5 (Stars win by 2+ goals) is the industry standard. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage until Kalshi's market structure is confirmed with support.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four separate Yes/No markets based on goal-differential thresholds: Minnesota >2.5 goals (Yes), Dallas >1.5 goals (Yes), Minnesota >1.5 goals (Yes), Dallas >2.5 goals (Yes). All resolve to Yes under different conditions, creating overlapping outcome space. Non-standard structure for sports betting.
- Polymarket: Conventional market suite: Moneyline (Wild vs Stars binary), Spread (Stars -1.5 resolves Stars if win by 2+, else Wild), and Over/Under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). Standard NHL betting logic with clear mutual exclusivity.
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