TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Wild vs. Lightning
Volume:
$584,118
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Minnesota Wild vs. Tampa Bay Lightning NHL game scheduled for March 24, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets cover moneyline (winner) and total goals scored (over/under at multiple thresholds: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5). Resolution depends on final score including overtime and shootouts, with shootout wins adding one goal to the winning team's total.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi's markets resolve YES if the threshold is exceeded (e.g., over 2.5 means 3+ goals), while Polymarket's markets resolve Over if the stated threshold is met or exceeded (e.g., O/U 5.5 resolves Over at 6+ goals). This creates a systematic 1-goal offset in how the same underlying game outcome maps to market resolution.Hero Tip:
If you bet the same over/under threshold on both platforms, your outcomes will diverge by exactly one goal at boundary conditions. For example, if the final score is 6 total goals: Kalshi's over 5.5 resolves YES, but Polymarket's O/U 5.5 also resolves Over. However, at 5 total goals, Kalshi's over 5.5 resolves NO while Polymarket's O/U 5.5 resolves Under. Always verify which platform you are trading on and adjust your mental model accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi uses strict greater-than logic for all over markets. Each market resolves YES if the combined goals strictly exceed the stated threshold (e.g., over 2.5 resolves YES only if 3+ goals are scored). The eight markets cover thresholds of 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 goals.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses greater-than-or-equal logic for over/under markets. Each O/U market resolves Over if the combined goals meet or exceed a derived threshold (e.g., O/U 5.5 resolves Over if 6+ goals are scored, O/U 4.5 resolves Over if 5+ goals are scored). Polymarket also includes a head-to-head winner market and a spread market (Lightning -1.5), neither of which appear on Kalshi.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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