This event group determines where NFL quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will play during the 2026-27 season. Markets track whether he joins a specific team, stays with Miami, or retires by August 31, 2026. The resolution hinges on official team announcements or credible media consensus by the deadline.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the same core logic: official team assignment by early September 2026, with official NFL/team announcements as primary sources and credible media as secondary. Minor timing difference (Sep 1 vs Aug 31 11:59 PM ET) is negligible. Both treat Miami retention and retirement as resolved outcomes.
Primary resolution logic:
Official NFL announcements, acquiring team official statements, and consensus credible media reporting
Core resolution logic:
Resolution occurs when Tua Tagovailoa officially signs with or is traded to a team before September 1, 2026 (Kalshi) or August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket)
All 32 NFL teams are covered as distinct outcomes across both platforms
If Tua remains with Miami Dolphins, Kalshi resolves Yes; Polymarket defaults to Miami Dolphins
If Tua retires or becomes unsigned by deadline, Kalshi resolves Yes (retirement counted); Polymarket resolves to Other
If Tua joins a team not explicitly listed on Polymarket, it resolves to Other
Official signing or trade announcement immediately triggers resolution to the corresponding team
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Retirement before deadline: Kalshi treats retirement as a Yes resolution (covered under rule 20). Polymarket treats retirement as Other. Both outcomes are logically consistent with their respective market structures.
No team change by deadline: If Tua remains unsigned and with Miami, Kalshi resolves Yes (rule 20). Polymarket defaults to Miami Dolphins. Both treat this as a resolved outcome.
Trade announcement timing: Both platforms resolve immediately upon official announcement, regardless of when the player physically reports or signs paperwork.
Unsigned free agent status: If Tua is released and remains unsigned by deadline, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi treats this as covered under rule 20 (non-Miami outcome resolves Yes).
Timing:
Resolution deadline is August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket) / September 1, 2026 (Kalshi). Official announcements trigger immediate resolution. If no announcement by deadline, default/fallback resolution applies.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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