TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Where will Kyler Murray play in 2026-27?
Volume:
$931,673
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines where NFL quarterback Kyler Murray will play during the 2026-27 season. Markets span 34 team-specific binary questions on Polymarket plus 32 Kalshi markets covering all NFL teams and edge cases (retirement, staying with Arizona). Resolution hinges on official team signing/trade announcements by early September 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Timing divergence (August 31 vs September 1, 2026) and semantic divergence in retirement/default handling. Polymarket defaults to Arizona Cardinals and treats retirement as Other; Kalshi bundles retirement with Arizona retention into a single outcome.Hero Tip:
Monitor official NFL announcements closely between August 31 and September 1, 2026. If Murray signs a new team, both platforms should resolve consistently to that team. If no move occurs by August 31 ET, Polymarket resolves to Arizona Cardinals while Kalshi's Arizona/Retirement outcome resolves Yes. If Murray retires before August 31, Polymarket resolves to Other while Kalshi resolves to Yes. Traders should hedge across platforms or clarify retirement treatment with each platform before the cutoff.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Uses August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET cutoff. Defaults to Arizona Cardinals if no new team signed. Treats retirement or unsigned status as Other. Resolves individual team markets based on official NFL/team announcements or credible media consensus.
- Kalshi: Uses September 1, 2026 cutoff (1 day later). Bundles Arizona Cardinals retention and retirement into a single Yes outcome (market 24). Covers all 32 NFL teams with individual Yes/No markets. Does not explicitly distinguish retirement from Arizona retention.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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