TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on the same underlying event (Netflix Top 10 US show ranking published March 24, 2026) but differ significantly in scope and market structure. Polymarket offers 20 individual binary markets covering specific shows plus an 'Other' catch-all, while Kalshi offers 11 individual binary markets covering specific shows with no explicit 'Other' option, creating different coverage and resolution mechanics.Hero Tip:
If you bet on a show that appears in Polymarket but not Kalshi (e.g., 'Show B', 'Show D', 'Show E', 'Show F', 'Show H', 'Show K', 'Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed', 'Mark Normand: None Too Pleased'), your Polymarket position may resolve YES while Kalshi has no corresponding market. Conversely, shows listed only on Kalshi (e.g., 'Bridgerton: Season 4', 'The TikTok Killer', 'A Friend, a Murderer', 'Raw: 2026', 'Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic', 'Love Is Blind: The Reunion', 'BTS THE COMEBACK LIVE') have no Polymarket equivalent. Ensure your portfolio accounts for this asymmetric coverage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves 20 individual binary markets on named shows plus one 'Other' catch-all market. Exactly one market will resolve YES based on which show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US chart published March 24, 2026. If the update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all named-show markets resolve NO and 'Other' resolves YES. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves 11 individual binary markets on named shows only, with no explicit 'Other' or catch-all option. Each market resolves YES if that specific show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US chart published March 24, 2026, and NO otherwise. The platform does not address the scenario where the Netflix update fails to occur or where the #1 show is not among the 11 listed options. Key quote: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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