TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$217,415
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's official US Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 17, 2026. Both platforms offer binary markets on specific show titles, with resolution tied to Netflix's official weekly ranking update based on total US viewership.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution logic: Netflix's official #1 ranking on the March 17, 2026 Top 10 update, with the same data source (top10.netflix.com) and measurement basis (total US views for TV shows).
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list published on top10.netflix.com on March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution date is March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its weekly Top 10 update
- The update reflects viewership data from the prior week: Monday, March 10 through Sunday, March 16, 2026
- Resolution is based on which show ranks in the #1 position for US TV shows (not films)
- Ranking is determined by total views in the United States as reported by Netflix
- Exactly one show will resolve to YES; all others resolve to NO
- If Netflix does not publish the update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to "Other" and Kalshi markets remain unresolved
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Update Delay or Non-Publication: If Netflix fails to publish the Top 10 update by the March 20, 2026 deadline, Polymarket's "Other" option resolves YES; Kalshi markets have no explicit fallback and would require manual adjudication by Kalshi.
- Tie for #1 Position: Netflix's official ranking methodology determines a single #1 show; ties are not expected in the published list. If Netflix publishes a tie, the show listed first in the official ranking resolves YES.
- Show Title Variations: Polymarket and Kalshi use slightly different show title formats (e.g., 'One Piece: Season' vs 'One Piece: Season 2'). Resolution matches the show that appears in Netflix's official #1 position regardless of exact title formatting used by either platform.
- Film vs TV Show Distinction: Resolution is explicitly limited to TV shows only. If a film ranks #1 overall but no TV show is ranked #1 in the TV category, the top-ranked TV show resolves YES.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its official Top 10 update. If update is not published by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to fallback status (Polymarket: "Other"; Kalshi: unresolved pending adjudication).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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