This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's official US Top 10 TV shows list as of the chart published on February 24, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official rankings reflecting viewership data from the week prior to that publication date.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the same official Netflix Top 10 chart published February 24, 2026, as the single source of truth, with identical resolution logic: whichever show ranks #1 wins.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 US TV shows list published at top10.netflix.com on February 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
Core resolution logic:
Resolution is determined by which show appears in the #1 position on Netflix's official Top 10 US TV shows chart as published on February 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for TV shows.
Kalshi lists 13 named shows (Unfamiliar, Is It Cake? Valentines, Bridgerton Season 4, Katt Williams, Ms. Rachel, Jeffrey Epstein, Love Is Blind: Ohio, The Lincoln Lawyer Season 4, Raw, His & Hers, Reality Check, The Hunting Party, The Night Agent Season 3); each resolves Yes if ranked #1, No otherwise.
Polymarket lists 19 binary questions covering named shows (The Lincoln Lawyer Season 4, Is It Cake? Valentines, The Night Agent Season 3, Bridgerton Season 4, His & Hers, Reality Check, Katt Williams, Love Is Blind Season 10, Star Search) plus a catch-all 'another show' option; exactly one resolves Yes.
If Netflix does not publish the chart by February 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi's markets become unresolvable (implicit failure condition).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Netflix chart not published by deadline: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if the update does not occur by February 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi has no explicit fallback and would likely be voided or cancelled.
Tie or co-ranking at #1: Netflix's official methodology produces a single #1 ranking; ties are not expected. If Netflix reports multiple shows tied for #1, the show listed first in the official chart is the resolution target.
Show name or season mismatch: Kalshi specifies exact titles (e.g., 'The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4'); Polymarket uses similar naming. If Netflix's chart uses a different title or abbreviation, the market operator must confirm the show is the same entity before resolution.
Polymarket Show D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K placeholders: Polymarket includes 8 unnamed shows (Show D through Show K). These are catch-all positions; if any unnamed show ranks #1, the corresponding Polymarket question resolves Yes and the 'another show' option also resolves Yes.
Love Is Blind naming discrepancy: Kalshi specifies 'Love Is Blind: Ohio'; Polymarket specifies 'Love Is Blind: Season 10'. These may refer to the same show or different seasons. Confirm with Netflix's official chart which title is used.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or after February 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, when Netflix publishes the Top 10 chart. Final settlement deadline is February 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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